社会工作专业教学组织机制：问题与选择

优化教学组织机制是提高社会工作专业教育质量不可或缺的重要一环。面对社会工作专业课堂教学和实践教学他组织与自组织相分离的现实困境,教师要科学选择介入策略,勇于革新教学方法,以实现教学组织机制的优化。     

Books on probability ideas are reviewed

In this paper, semiparametric methods are applied to estimate multivariate volatility functions, using a residual approach as in [J. Fan and Q. Yao, Efficient estimation of conditional variance functions in stochastic regression, Biometrika 85 (1998), pp. 645–660; F.A. Ziegelmann, Nonparametric estimation of volatility functions: The local exponential estimator, Econometric Theory 18 (2002), pp. 985–991; F.A. Ziegelmann, A local linear least-absolute-deviations estimator of volatility, Comm. Statist. Simulation Comput. 37 (2008), pp. 1543–1564], among others. Our main goal here is two-fold: (1) describe and implement a number of semiparametric models, such as additive, single-index and (adaptive) functional-coefficient, in volatility estimation, all motivated as alternatives to deal with the curse of dimensionality present in fully nonparametric models; and (2) propose the use of a variation of the traditional cross-validation method to deal with model choice in the class of adaptive functional-coefficient models, choosing simultaneously the bandwidth, the number of covariates in the model and also the single-index smoothing variable. The modified cross-validation algorithm is able to tackle the computational burden caused by the model complexity, providing an important tool in semiparametric volatility estimation. We briefly discuss model identifiability when estimating volatility as well as nonnegativity of the resulting estimators. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulations for several underlying generating models are implemented and applications to real data are provided.     

公平感对供应链成员定价决策影响的研究

本文研究公平感对由一个供应商和一个零售商组成的二级供应链中的定价决策的影响,其中供应商决定批发价格,零售商在接受供应商批发价格合同之后决定零售价格,市场需求受到零售价格的线性影响.采用管理实验方法得出,首先,供应商的批发价格和零售商的零售价格均分别低于完全理性假设下的均衡解;供应商是利他性的,即,乐于看到零售商收益的增加,并且,供应商认为零售商是完全理性的,即零售商的决策目标是最大化自身收益;然而,零售商却是刻毒性的,即乐于看到供应商收益的减少.其次,批发价格的变异度大于零售价格的,即供应商决策的难度大于零售商的.给管理者的启示是:供应商应考虑零售商的刻毒性的特征,降低批发价格,以提高零售商接受供应商所提批发价格的概率;此外,还应该为供应商提供辅助决策手段,以降低批发价格的变异度,提高决策的准确性     

Racial/Ethnic Patterns of Kindergarten School Enrollment in the United States

Enrollment into unequal schools at the start of formal education is an important mechanism for the reproduction of racial/ethnic educational inequalities. We examine whether there are racial/ethnic differences in school enrollment options at kindergarten, the start of schooling. We use nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study‐Birth Cohort (ECLS‐B) to model whether parents seek information about their child's school before enrolling, whether parents move to a location so that a child can attend a certain school, or whether parents enroll their child in a school other than the assigned public school. Results indicate that enrollment patterns differ greatly across race/ethnicity. Whereas Black families are the most likely to seek information on a school's performance, White families are the most likely to use the elite option of choosing their residential location to access a particular school. These differences persist when controlling for socioeconomic status and sociogeographic location. Kindergarten enrollment patterns preserve the advantages of White families, perpetuating racial/ethnic disparities through multiple institutions and contributing to intergenerational processes of social stratification. Research should continue to examine specific educational consequences of housing inequities and residential segregation.     

知识分子的社会选择——葛兰西知识分子理论的现代启示

伴随着中国走向现代化过程,中国知识分子面临着工具理性主义对传统价值观的挑战,同时也引发了知识分子对诸如道德担当与社会责任、批判精神的价值反思,葛兰西知识分子理论为我们解决现代化进程中中国知识分子遭遇的困境和挑战带来重要的启示。     

THE RELEVANCE OF THE CONCEPT OF DISSOCIATION IN CHILD PROTECTION

This paper explores one aspect of unresolved trauma, namely dissociation. Its relevance to child protection is discussed with reference to two aspects: emotional neglect and choice of partner. There is an exploration of the implications for both assessment and treatment. The central place of shame in relation to dissociation is also explored. It is argued that dissociation is an important concept in child protection assessments and that social work assessments should be alert to this.     

Adaptive designs for single‐arm phase II trials in oncology

Clinical phase II trials in oncology are conducted to determine whether the activity of a new anticancer treatment is promising enough to merit further investigation. Two‐stage designs are commonly used for this situation to allow for early termination. Designs proposed in the literature so far have the common drawback that the sample sizes for the two stages have to be specified in the protocol and have to be adhered to strictly during the course of the trial. As a consequence, designs that allow a higher extent of flexibility are desirable. In this article, we propose a new adaptive method that allows an arbitrary modification of the sample size of the second stage using the results of the interim analysis or external information while controlling the type I error rate. If the sample size is not changed during the trial, the proposed design shows very similar characteristics to the optimal two‐stage design proposed by Chang et al. (Biometrics 1987; 43:865–874). However, the new design allows the use of mid‐course information for the planning of the second stage, thus meeting practical requirements when performing clinical phase II trials in oncology. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国保险公司合作竞争的博弈分析

竞争与合作相互依存,互利共生。纯粹的竞争或合作均不利于保险市场的健康发展。竞争抑或合作的最大困扰乃收益分配问题。通过构建博弈模型对我国保险公司之间竞争与合作的关系进行博弈分析,可以看到在完全信息静态博弈、非完全信息静态博弈和完全信息动态博弈三种情况下保险公司竞争与合作的难点,因此需要采取相应的对策。     

读《史记》,探讨政府治理问题

公共选择理论认为,对于公众而言,政府组织行政效率低下问题的重要原因之一在于政府行为同样具有"经济人"特征,即政府组织及其官员出于"利己"本性,同样追求自身利益最大化。尽管"人性"使然而难以改变,但是通过政府治理过程,并在公众监督下逐渐改进政府行为,提高其行政效率还是可能的。改革开放以来,我国政府治理工作一直在积极进行中,但至今成效不甚明显。有关历史研究说明:在我国,政治改革滞后成为单纯制度建设难以提升政府绩效的深层原因,因此政府治理工作仍任重道远;实现合意的政府治理之根本途径是建立相应的政治保障机制、法规约束机制和道德自律机制;就目前我国政府治理状况而言,当务之急是建立一支能够道德自律的官员队伍。     

高丽对蒙古文化的“受容”与排斥——以“蒙古风”在高丽兴衰为例

所谓“蒙古风”,指元代蒙古族入主中原之后,随着高丽后期与元朝在人力、物力及文化交流的活跃,引入高丽并传承流行的一些蒙古风俗.大体上是从第24代元宗(公元1259年至公元1274年)开始,到第30代忠定王(公元1348年至公元1351年)的90多年时间,主要流行于王室和官吏等上层社会,以胡服和辫发最具代表性.“蒙古风”的...